An interesting article in Bloomberg noted that the recovery in this year’s Treasury market has been stronger than the rally predicted by every economist they queried in a recent survey. In mid-August, Bloomberg contacted 66 economists for their Sept. 30 forecasts on the 10-year yield for Treasury bonds. The 10-year yield closed on Aug. 28…
There is a wide body of evidence demonstrating the existence of momentum not only in stocks, but across asset classes. There’s also evidence that moving-average indicators provide higher risk-adjusted stock returns in recessions. On the other hand, while major data vendors, such as MarketWatch and Bloomberg, report daily on technical market indicators (for example, advance…
I am sometimes described as “contrary.” Actually, the more commonly used terms are “opinionated,” “arbitrary” and “judgmental.” There may be varying degrees of truth to all of them. Today, however, rather than temper or minimize my “contrarian” views, I’ve decided to embrace them. Some of the statements I’m told fall into this category are: 1….
We’re really good at telling ourselves stories. One story I told myself for a long time was that I needed to buy a lot of books. It’s my job to be on top of things, so I’d go to Amazon, read a sentence or two of a review, and buy the book. Over time, this…
Today we’ll turn our attention to the two risk premiums that help explain the performance of bond portfolios—term and credit. Unlike with the value premium, there’s no debate about whether these two factors earn premiums based on risk. They are not anomalies created by behavioral errors. The data covers the same 87-year period, 1927-2013, that…
One of the most important investment decisions you make is in determining your asset allocation, or how you choose to divide your assets between risky and safe investments. Another key decision concerns which strategy to use when selecting the funds to implement your asset allocation plan. Should you be a buy-and-hold investor? Or should you…
Historical market data are often misused by pundits who believe they can predict the future by looking at the past. Much of what counts these days as “financial news” is simply a parade of self-styled “pros” peering into their crystal balls and telling the rest of us how to time the market, pick outperforming stocks…
Recently, we have seen a rise in the level of discussion about whether there is a significant value premium in large-cap stocks. The value premium is the tendency of stocks with low prices relative to measures of their value to outperform stocks with high relative prices. Since large-cap stocks make up about 90 percent of…
It’s no longer surprising when hedge funds close their doors. According to a website that tracks hedge fund “implosions,” since late 2006, aptly-named The Hedge Fund Implode-O-Meter, at least 117 major funds at 71 fund families have shuttered. The sponsoring fund families are some of the best-known in the business. They include Citigroup, Carlyle, Russell…
It’s now been more than five years since our last recession. This most recent recession, caused by the financial crisis, officially began in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009, a period of 18 months. It was the longest of 12 recessions, identified as such by the National Bureau of Economic Research, occurring in the…
Early in my career, I worked at a large brokerage firm. My job included answering calls from people with questions. One question kept coming up: What does your Individual Retirement Account return? The first few times, I thought it was a joke. But it didn’t take long for me to realize that people just didn’t…
Earlier this summer, I was on a hike with a friend and mentioned that while we’d started at about 9,000 feet, we’d reach an elevation of 12,000 feet by the end of the trail. My friend replied, “That’s a fact I just don’t believe.” Yes, it sounds silly, and of course, we laughed about it….
“People have always been captivated by quests,” writes author Chris Guillebeau in his brand new book, The Happiness of Pursuit. Chris, for one, is most certainly one of those people. His book celebrates the completion of a personal quest to visit all 193 countries in the world before his 35th birthday. Are the rest of…
Today I’d like to take a look at some important concepts contained within Daniel Pink’s bestselling book, A Whole New Mind. His focus on the ascendance of right-brain thinking fits squarely into our continuing conversation about ways to best train our youth to meet the financial, educational and career challenges facing the Millennial generation. My…
It’s not easy having conversations about money. Carl Richards, director of investor education for the BAM ALLIANCE, says they can “leave us feeling confused, misunderstood, and even angry.” That doesn’t mean you are better off not having these talks. In his book, “The Behavior Gap: Simple Ways to Stop Doing Dumb Things With Money,” Carl writes…
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